Doctors, lawyers, crime scene investigators, and even parents – they all use inductive reasoning every day. In fact, pretty much anyone who compiles evidence to reach a probable conclusion practices induction. But at the core of inductive thinking is the “inductive leap”, the stretch that draws a reasonable conclusion from the available information. The trick is to make sure that stretch is reachable.
The same set of rules applies to the screenwriter. Think of it this way: the course of events you sent in motion is the inductive evidence, and as we compile these events, you bring us closer to a reasonable and acceptable resolution. However, if you fail to provide enough believable events (or evidence) to reach the desired satisfactory resolution (or conclusion), your script is flawed. In fact, you are guilty of Jumping to Conclusions. We must believe every resolution along the way; therefore, you must follow the plausible path. Get there through probability, not possibility.